UK & Global Finance Monitor
A plain-English view of how the UK and world economies are doing: one stress score each for the UK economy, world markets and UK households, what’s driving them, stock markets, the pound, gold, oil, gas and rare earths, and the long history of prices, pay, house prices, mortgage rates and jobs — back to the 1970s. It’s a snapshot, not a trading screen.
- Financial stress scores
- Markets & currencies
- 50 years of history
How things stand
updated Tue 20 Oct, 16:57 UK time · markets every 30 minutes, official figures as they’re publishedUK and global finances are under strain, mainly from energy prices: Brent crude is at $107, up 76% on a year ago. UK and world stress scores both sit at 40, in the Strained band.
Top riskEnergy prices, with a stress score of 61 (Stressed) and Brent crude at $107, up 76% on a year ago.
Scores run from 0 (calm) to 100: Stable under 25 · Watchful 25–39 · Strained 40–54 · Stressed 55–69 · Crisis 70+. They’re our own indicative estimate, not an official measure and not investment advice.
What’s driving it
each part scored 0–100; the heaviest firstUK economy
World markets
UK households
The briefing
written by AI from the figures on this page · Tue 20 Oct, 15:34The UK economy
UK financial stress is 40, Strained. Inflation is 3.1% (August 2026), above the 2% target, and unemployment is 4.7%. Government borrowing is costly, with the 10-year gilt at 5.30% and debt at 93.8% of GDP.
World markets
Global stress is also 40, Strained, with oil and gas prices the largest concern: European gas is up 167% on a year ago. World shares are on average 5.6% below their 52-week highs, while the VIX fear gauge at 17.9 sits within its calm range of 12 to 20.
Household budgets
Household stress is 35, Watchful. Energy bills score highest at 61, and the 2-year fixed mortgage rate is 5.13%, while pay is up only 0.7% a year after inflation. Individual insolvencies stand at 11,894 a month, 20% above the five-year normal.
Things to watch over the next 6–12 months
- Energy prices could ease from Brent's $107 level, or stay high, which would affect bills and inflation.
- The 10-year gilt yield, now 5.30%, could rise or fall, shaping mortgage and borrowing costs.
- CPI inflation of 3.1% could move towards the 2% target, or stay above it, affecting how far pay of 0.7% above inflation goes.
- Unemployment of 4.7% could change, as small firms have cut back hiring.
These are possibilities suggested by today’s figures, not forecasts. Nobody can reliably predict markets.
Markets at a glance
delayed prices · change today, over a month and over a year · click one to chart itStock markets
Currencies
Metals & rare earths
Oil, gas & food
Computer memory makers
Crypto
Bonds & interest rates
Green or red shows whether a move is generally good or bad for the UK (a stronger pound and rising shares are good; dearer oil and gas are bad); metals, crypto and the yen are shown neutrally. Gold is in US dollars per troy ounce, copper per pound weight. The rare-earths line follows the VanEck Rare Earth & Strategic Metals fund (REMX), MP Materials (the main US maker of rare-earth magnets) and Lynas (the largest producer outside China).
Chart: FTSE 100
Up to a year uses daily closing prices; longer ranges use month-end prices, as far back as each market’s history goes.
Computer memory (RAM) prices
DRAMeXchange spot prices, US dollars · 20 Oct 2026RAM spot prices, osir’s daily record
There’s no free long-run RAM price history, so osir records DRAMeXchange’s daily spot price from 20 October 2026; the line grows each day. Rising RAM prices are shown as bad (red) because they push up the cost of computers and phones.
Memory-chip makers’ shares (the RAM cycle over decades)
Micron, SK hynix and Samsung, each set to 100 at the start (log scale). Their share prices rise and fall with RAM prices, so this shows the long boom-and-bust memory cycle. They’re companies, not the price of RAM itself.
Spot prices from DRAMeXchange (TrendForce), the industry’s reference; spot is the open-market price, which leads the contract prices big buyers pay. Shop prices for memory sticks follow with a delay and add VAT and margins.
Financial stress since 1975
monthly · worked out the same way as today’s scoresEach month is scored from the figures published for that month, so the line shows how today compares with past crises: the early-1980s and early-1990s recessions, the 2008 financial crisis, the 2020 pandemic and the 2022 energy and gilt crisis. Before the 1990s fewer figures exist (no mortgage-rate, gilt or market-fear series), so older readings rest on fewer parts. Grey bands are UK recessions (two or more quarters of falling GDP).
The UK economy over time
Inflation
CPI from 1989; RPI before that. The Bank of England’s target is 2%.
Unemployment
The share of people who want a job and are looking but don’t have one (16+, seasonally adjusted).
Economic growth (GDP)
Growth against the same quarter a year earlier.
Bank Rate and the 10-year gilt yield
What the government pays to borrow for 10 years drives fixed mortgage rates.
Public debt
Public sector net debt (excluding public sector banks) as a share of GDP.
Government borrowing
Public sector net borrowing over the previous 12 months, £ billion (negative = surplus).
The pound against the dollar
Dollars per £1. Monthly average from 1971 (FRED), daily for the last year.
The pound against the euro
Euros per £1, from the euro’s launch in 1999 (worked out from FRED’s dollar rates), daily for the last year.
The dollar against the euro
Euros per $1, from 1999 (FRED), daily for the last year.
UK shares
FTSE 100 (biggest 100 companies) and FTSE 250 (the next 250, more UK-focused).
Production and retail sales
Industrial production (from 1948) and retail sales volume (from 1996), indexes.
UK households over time
Why the official figures can look better than it feels
- It’s an average across everyone. “Real disposable income per head” adds up all household income in the country — including higher earners, pensions, investment income and the rent homeowners notionally “pay themselves” — and divides by the population. A rise at the top can lift the average while many households fall behind. Even so, it grew about 2.6% a year from 1997 to 2007 and only about 0.7% a year since — and since the end of 2019 it has changed by just +0.2% (to £26,308 a year per person).
- Income isn’t what’s left over. It’s counted before rent, mortgage repayments, energy and food are paid. When those rise faster than prices in general, income can look steady while the money left at the end of the month shrinks.
- Some gains don’t reach working households’ pockets. Higher savings interest (2023–25) and big State Pension rises lift the average mainly for older and better-off households, while the same rate rises pushed up mortgage and credit costs for borrowers.
- It’s adjusted by average prices, not the prices of essentials. Food, energy and rent have risen much faster than prices overall, and they take a bigger share of tighter budgets. Measured against essentials, pay has gone nowhere since 2000.
- Mortgage costs hit when a fixed deal ends. Millions came off 1–2% fixes onto 4–6%; that jump isn’t in the price indices.
- Averages hide spread. Personal insolvencies are running above their 5-year normal (chart below), a sign more people are struggling even as the average edges up.
UK Affordability Index
One combined measure, January 2000 = 100; lower means harder. It blends what a week’s pay buys in essentials (30%), mortgage repayments on an average home as a share of pay (20%), the average house price in years of pay (22%), what a week’s pay buys in motoring (10%; ONS’s RPI motoring basket of buying a car, maintenance, fuel, vehicle tax and insurance) and the share of adults becoming insolvent (18%; damped, because new debt-relief schemes since 2009 explain part of its rise). Each part is set so January 2000 = 100 and a worse reading pulls the index down.
What a week’s pay buys
Average weekly pay (before tax) divided by prices, January 2000 = 100. “In essentials” uses only food, energy, rent, motor fuel and water, weighted the way the ONS weights them in CPI each year; “in everything” uses all prices (the usual “real pay”).
Essentials against pay
All set to 100 on the same date (the start of the range, or January 2000 when pay data begins). Average weekly pay against the prices of food, home energy, private rents, motor fuel and council tax, and all prices (dashed).
Average house price
The average price paid for a home in the UK (Land Registry UK House Price Index), monthly from 1968. Log scale over long ranges: equal heights are equal % rises.
House prices against pay
The average house price divided by average yearly pay (weekly earnings × 52). Official affordability ratios use median full-time pay, which gives higher numbers (around 8); the trend is the same.
Food prices against pay
Food and non-alcoholic drink prices (CPI) against average weekly pay, both set to 100 on the same date (1988, when the food series starts, or the start of the range).
Mortgage repayments as a share of pay
The monthly repayment on an average-priced UK home (Land Registry), borrowing 75% over 25 years at that month’s 2-year fixed rate, as a share of average gross monthly pay. Existing borrowers feel it when their fixed deal ends.
Motoring costs against pay
All set to 100 on the same date. New and second-hand car prices, motor fuel and car insurance (CPI), and vehicle tax with insurance (RPI), against average pay and all prices (dashed). There’s no free official series of the average price paid for a car, so these are price indices. CPI’s car prices are adjusted for quality (a better car at the same price counts as cheaper), so they understate what buyers actually pay; the thick line is ONS’s RPI motoring basket, which is closer to the real cost of running a car.
Average pay after inflation
Average weekly pay including bonuses, in today’s prices (ONS). The 2008 peak was only regained years later.
People claiming the main benefits
Millions of people, Great Britain, by financial year (DWP); the shaded years are DWP’s own forecast. Universal Credit has replaced six older benefits since 2013 — including tax credits, which aren’t in DWP’s tables — so part of its rise is people moving across. Not shown: State Pension (about 13 million).
Pay against prices
Average weekly earnings growth, inflation, and pay after inflation.
Real disposable income per head against what’s left in the pocket
All three set to 100 on the same date. Real disposable income per head (blue) is the official national average: all household income after tax and benefits, adjusted by average prices. Against it: the UK Affordability Index and what a week’s pay buys in essentials. The gap between the blue line and the other two is the difference between average income on paper and what’s left after essentials, housing and debt. The £ figure is about £26,000 a year per person (ONS publishes it per quarter).
House prices
How much UK house prices changed over a year (BIS residential property price index, quarterly).
Mortgage rates
2-year fixed (75% LTV), standard variable rate and Bank Rate.
Mortgage approvals
New mortgages approved for house purchase each month.
Savings ratio
The share of household income saved. It jumps when people are worried or can’t spend.
Insolvencies
Individual and company insolvencies a month, England & Wales (seasonally adjusted).
Mortgage repossessions
Repossessions by county court bailiffs each quarter, England & Wales. Lender figures can differ.
Food prices
Food and non-alcoholic drink inflation against all-items CPI.
Road tax (Vehicle Excise Duty) today
Read from GOV.UK’s vehicle tax rate tables every week; rates usually change each April, and new rates appear here once GOV.UK publishes them. The “vehicle tax & insurance” line in the chart above shows how the cost has moved over time.
How financially stressed are people in other countries?
2026, from the IMF World Economic Outlook (this year is an IMF estimate)The stress score uses the same 0–100 scale and formulas as the UK scores above, but only the four headline figures the IMF publishes for every country: inflation, unemployment (and whether it’s rising), economic growth and government debt. That’s why the UK reads lower here than in the live UK score, which also counts energy prices, mortgages and markets. The misery index is simply inflation plus unemployment. Shaded years are IMF forecasts. China’s official unemployment figure covers urban areas only and is widely thought to understate hardship.
People: population, migration, work and benefits
UK population by age
Millions, ONS mid-year estimates (Nomis), from 1991. The State Pension age is now 66, so “65 and over” is close to (slightly more than) the number of people of pension age.
Share of the population born abroad
Per cent, Annual Population Survey (12-month periods): the UK and London. The survey’s response rates fell after 2020, so recent years are less certain.
Born in the UK and born abroad: the UK
Per cent of the population (Annual Population Survey, from 2004). Hover for the number of people too: the shares applied to the ONS mid-year population. “Born abroad” includes many British citizens.
Born in the UK and born abroad: London
Per cent of London’s population, the same survey; hover for the number of people (the shares applied to the ONS London population).
Net migration by nationality
Thousands a year (people arriving to stay 12 months or more, minus people leaving), years ending each quarter, ONS. A negative figure means more people of that nationality left than arrived.
People arriving and leaving
Thousands a year, all nationalities: long-term immigration and emigration (ONS).
Asylum seekers receiving Home Office support
Thousands of people, at the end of each quarter: housing and/or money while a claim is decided (Home Office, Asy_D09). It doesn’t count everyone who has claimed asylum.
Benefit claims against people in work
Each as a share of the UK population (hover for the numbers). Working-age benefit claims add up Universal Credit, disability (PIP & DLA), sickness, unemployment, Income Support, Housing Benefit and Carer’s Allowance; one person can claim more than one, so this is claims, not people. Shaded years are DWP’s forecast; for those years the share uses the latest population estimate.
All benefit claims, people in work and unemployment
Millions. All benefit claims add the working-age claims above to State Pension and Pension Credit (DWP, by financial year, shaded = forecast). People in work and people unemployed (looking for work and available) are from the ONS Labour Force Survey. A count of individual claimants (rather than claims) isn’t published without DWP’s Stat-Xplore account.
The world economy over time
US shares
S&P 500 and Nasdaq (log scale: equal heights are equal % moves).
Other big markets
DAX (Germany), Nikkei 225 (Japan) and Hang Seng (Hong Kong), log scale.
Market fear (VIX)
Expected swings in US shares over the next month. Calm is 12–20; over 30 is panic.
Financial system stress
The St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, built from 18 market measures. 0 is normal; above 0 means more stress than usual.
US yield curve
10-year minus 2-year Treasury yields. When it falls below zero (inverts), a recession has often followed within about two years.
US jobs, inflation and interest rates
US unemployment, inflation and the Federal Reserve rate.
Gold and silver
Each indexed to 100 at the start of the range, so their moves can be compared.
Oil
Brent (monthly average from 1987) and WTI, US dollars a barrel.
Gas
Europe’s TTF benchmark (which sets UK prices) and the US Henry Hub, each indexed to 100 at the start of the range.
Copper, wheat and rare earths
Copper ($/lb), wheat (US cents a bushel) and the REMX rare-earths fund, each indexed to 100 at the start of the range.
Bitcoin
US dollars (log scale over long ranges).
The biggest shares
the largest UK and US companies by value · delayed pricesUK (FTSE 100 giants)
| Company | Price | Today | 1M | 1Y | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AstraZeneca AZN | 12,618p | +1.8% | +0.9% | +0% | |
| Shell SHEL | 3,900p | −0.8% | +10.2% | +44% | |
| HSBC HSBA | 1,385p | −0.9% | −8.4% | +43% | |
| Unilever ULVR | 4,904p | −0.0% | +6.1% | −2% | |
| Rolls-Royce RR | 1,323p | −0.7% | −8.8% | +17% | |
| BP BP | 606p | −1.7% | +8.4% | +48% | |
| British American Tobacco BATS | 4,419p | −0.5% | +5.3% | +16% | |
| GSK GSK | 1,869p | +0.7% | −0.5% | +14% | |
| Rio Tinto RIO | 6,545p | −2.5% | −9.3% | +28% | |
| London Stock Exchange Group LSEG | 8,744p | +0.5% | +6.0% | +1% | |
| Barclays BARC | 419p | +0.3% | −9.4% | +16% | |
| Lloyds LLOY | 102p | −1.1% | −6.5% | +23% | |
| BAE Systems BA | 1,947p | −0.3% | −3.9% | +5% | |
| National Grid NG | 1,211p | +1.8% | +5.4% | +7% | |
| Tesco TSCO | 539p | 0.0% | +13.2% | +22% | |
| RELX REL | 2,928p | −0.3% | +17.2% | −14% |
US (the largest companies)
| Company | Price | Today | 1M | 1Y | Last year |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nvidia NVDA | $217.34 | +0.1% | −2.2% | +19% | |
| Microsoft MSFT | $531.56 | −0.4% | +7.7% | +3% | |
| Apple AAPL | $340.98 | −0.6% | +1.4% | +30% | |
| Alphabet (Google) GOOGL | $341.65 | −0.7% | −2.3% | +33% | |
| Amazon AMZN | $263.33 | +0.3% | +3.8% | +22% | |
| Meta META | $692.13 | −1.9% | +4.0% | −5% | |
| Broadcom AVGO | $335.59 | +0.3% | −6.2% | −4% | |
| Tesla TSLA | $374.49 | +1.8% | +2.8% | −16% | |
| Berkshire Hathaway BRK-B | $537.65 | +1.0% | +5.5% | +9% | |
| JPMorgan Chase JPM | $336.81 | +1.0% | −3.7% | +11% | |
| Eli Lilly LLY | $1,299.97 | +4.8% | +12.8% | +61% | |
| TSMC TSM | $427.85 | +1.8% | −1.6% | +44% | |
| Visa V | $407.97 | +1.3% | +10.8% | +18% | |
| Walmart WMT | $118.36 | −0.3% | +10.9% | +11% | |
| ExxonMobil XOM | $176.20 | −1.2% | +7.7% | +56% | |
| ASML ASML | $1,640.95 | −0.4% | −2.3% | +57% |
Shares are listed for information only — this isn’t a recommendation. UK prices are in pence.
Warning signs to watch
classic early-warning signals, checked against today’s figures2 of 12 warning signs are showing.
- UK recession (two quarters of falling GDP): not showingLast two quarters: +0.6% and +0.4%
- US yield curve inverted: not showing10-year minus 2-year: +0.38 points
- US Sahm rule recession signal (0.5+): not showingNow 0.00
- Market panic (VIX over 30): not showingVIX 17.8
- UK shares in a bear market (20%+ off the high): not showingFTSE 100 1.6% below its 52-week high
- Oil shock (Brent up 50%+ in a year): showingBrent +77% in a year
- UK inflation over 5%: not showingCPI 3.1%
- Rising UK unemployment (up 0.5+ points in a year): not showingChange in a year: −0.1 points
- Pay falling behind prices: not showingPay after inflation +0.7% a year
- High UK government borrowing costs (10-year gilt over 5%): showing10-year gilt 5.30%
- Pound sliding (down 10%+ against the dollar in a year): not showingGBP/USD −0.4% in a year
- Financial system stress above normal: not showingSt. Louis Fed index -0.72 (0 = normal)
If the last year’s trend carried on
| Figure | Latest | In 6 months, on trend |
|---|---|---|
| UK inflation (CPI) | 3.1% (Aug 2026) | 1.8% |
| UK unemployment | 4.7% (Jul 2026) | 4.5% |
| 2-year fixed mortgage rate | 5.1% (Sep 2026) | 6.4% |
| UK pay after inflation | 0.7% (Aug 2026) | 1.4% |
| Public debt (% of GDP) | 93.8% (Aug 2026) | 93.4% |
A straight line through the last 12 readings, carried forward. It’s arithmetic, not a forecast: real economies turn. For official forecasts see the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Report and the Office for Budget Responsibility.
Business headlines
the latest from BBC, Sky News, the Guardian and CNBC- Paddy Power cuts 1,400 jobs and blames betting tax rises BBC · Tue 16:53
- General Motors beats Wall Street's Q3 earnings expectations, narrows full-year guidance CNBC · Tue 16:43
- Union attacks NatWest plans to get workers back to the office BBC · Tue 15:50
- Drivers set to get new rights to challenge 'rip-off' private parking fines Sky News · Tue 15:21
- Novo's next-generation obesity drug shows 25% weight loss in women in late-stage analysis CNBC · Tue 13:50
- Best Buy launches new gaming hub ahead of 'Zelda' and 'Grand Theft Auto VI' CNBC · Tue 13:45
- Bereaved families could face 'unjust' tax bill after civil service pension delays BBC · Tue 13:36
- Jobless rate falls but small firms cut back hiring BBC · Tue 12:26
- £30 rise in payments for crisis-hit households BBC · Tue 12:19
- 'I'm fed up of swiping': The singles choosing dating events over apps BBC · Tue 11:28
- Chancellor rejects calls to raise Capital Gains Tax in Budget BBC · Tue 11:06
- Starling Bank founder sold last shares at cut-price £1.7bn valuation Sky News · Tue 11:05
How the scores work
Each score is built from parts, each scored 0–100 from published figures with simple, fixed formulas — for example inflation adds about 11 points for every point it sits above the 2% target, and shares add about 3 points for every 1% they sit below their 52-week high. The overall score follows the worst part (so one serious problem shows up) and rises a little more when several parts are high at once.
UK economy covers inflation, unemployment, pay after inflation, mortgage rates, government borrowing costs and debt, the pound, UK shares, house prices and mortgage approvals, GDP growth, business failures, energy prices and repossessions. World markets covers the VIX, the St. Louis Fed Financial Stress Index, world share prices, oil, the rush to gold and the yen, recession signals (the US yield curve and the Sahm rule), US interest rates and inflation, crypto and copper. UK households measures what hits family budgets: what a week’s pay buys in essentials (falling over a year, and how far below its 10-year best), inflation (or food inflation if higher), jobs, mortgage repayments as a share of pay, household energy bills (what people actually pay, not wholesale prices), the average house price in years of pay, motoring costs against pay, pay after inflation, the share of adults becoming insolvent and repossessions. Like the other scores it shows how stressed things are now compared with calm times; the long, slow erosion since 2000 is what the UK Affordability Index shows.
The summary at the top is written by AI from these figures and the latest business headlines, a few times a day; it’s told never to invent numbers or give advice. None of this page is financial or investment advice.
Sources & updates
Market prices (indices, currencies, metals, oil, gas, crypto, shares): Yahoo Finance, delayed and indicative, refreshed every 30 minutes. Long histories and US figures: FRED (Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis), including BIS house prices. UK rates, mortgages and approvals: the Bank of England database. Inflation, jobs, pay, GDP, debt, income and savings: the Office for National Statistics. Insolvencies: the Insolvency Service. Repossessions: the Ministry of Justice. Official figures are checked daily (insolvencies and repossessions weekly) and contain public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. Headlines link to their publishers.
Related: the Global Situation Monitor, the UK Gas Network Monitor, the UK Electricity Grid and the Power cost calculator.