Weather UK Live

Met Office long-range outlook (UK)

Thursday 29 Oct - Saturday 7 Nov

A band of rain will make increasingly erratic eastwards progress at the start of this period, whilst tending to fizzle out, as high pressure becomes more dominant in the vicinity of the UK. Into early November and high pressure will most likely continue to be dominant feature near the UK, meaning drier than normal conditions for most if not all, though it could be rather cloudy and grey at times. If light winds and/or clear skies combine overnight, then areas of fog could develop, as would be typical at this time of year. Overall, temperatures are likely to be close to normal, but with the potential for cold nights with some frost around.

Sunday 8 Nov - Sunday 22 Nov

Perhaps mostly settled to start, perhaps with some chilly nights, but as we move further into November, there is an increased chance of more unsettled conditions developing, with a return to spells of rain and possible strong winds. However, the extent and location of areas which would be wetter and/or windier is uncertain and may not occur in the climatologically wettest areas. Overall temperatures probably near or a little above average.

From the Met Office long-range forecast, read Today 01:35. Contains public sector information licensed under the Open Government Licence v3.0. This is written by Met Office forecasters from their ensemble models, and is the best guide beyond a week.

For the next three months, see the Met Officesee the Met Office’s 3-month outlookrsquo;s 3-month outlook for contingency planners and the Copernicus seasonal forecasts: seasonal outlooks only shift the odds (for example “a colder than average winter is a little more likely”) and can’t give daily weather.

ECMWF (Europe), GFS (US) and GEM (Canada) are three of the world’s leading global forecast models. Where they agree, the forecast is more likely to be right; beyond about 10 days they often diverge and only the general trend means anything. GEM runs to about 10 days, GFS to 16 and ECMWF to about 15.

No snow is forecast at any of our 133 places in the next 5 days.

Snowfall in centimetres of fresh snow from the Met Office models, summed over each day. Hills and mountains get far more than the nearest town; turn on “Snow depth” on the map for lying snow on a grid.

Lying snow is being checked…

El Niño Advisory · latest index +2.16 °C (JAS 2026)

El Niño continues to strengthen, with a strong-to-very strong El Niño likely through January-March 2027 (remaining greater than an 83% chance). El Niño strengthened further last month, with sea surface temperature anomalies exceeding +4.

NOAA Climate Prediction Center, 8 October 2026. The index (ONI) is the 3-month average sea temperature difference from normal in the central-eastern tropical Pacific: +0.5 °C or more is El Niño, +1.5 °C strong, +2.0 °C very strong; −0.5 °C or less is La Niña.

What it means for the UK: El Niño mainly changes weather around the Pacific and the tropics. For the UK the link is weak, and the jet stream and other patterns usually matter more, but a strong El Niño has tended to tip the odds slightly towards a colder, drier late winter in northern Europe. It also lifts global temperatures for a year or so afterwards.